Лестер Браун - Как избежать климатических катастроф? План Б 4.0: спасение цивилизации

4 Йостин Дале, дискуссия с автором на Конференции о состоянии мира, Аспен, Колорадо, 22 июля 2001 г.

5 Норвегия, Коста-Рика и Мальдивы из Сети нейтрального климата Программы ООН по окружающей среде, «Страны» – см.: www.unep. org/climateneutral, просмотрено 24 июня 2009 г.; Olivia Lang, “Maldives Vows to be First Carbon-neutral Nation”, Reuters , 15 March 2009.

6 UNEP, “UNEP Unveils the Climate Neutral Network to Catalyze a Transition to a Low Carbon World” press release (Nairobi: Climate Neutral Network, 21 February 2008).

7 Redefining Progress, “The Economists’ Statement on Climate Change” – см.: www.rprogress.org/publications/1997/econstatement.htm, просмотрено автором 26 июня 2008 г.

8 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Sustaining State Programs for Tobacco Control: Data Highlights 2006 (Atlanta, GA: 2006).

9 Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids, “State Cigarette Excise Tax Rank and Ratings, fact sheet (Washington, DC: 28 May 2009); Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids, “Raising Cigarette Taxes Reduces Smoking, Especially Among Kids (And the Cigarette Companies Know It)”, fact sheet (Washington, DC: 9 January 2009); Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids, “Cigarette Tax Increases by State per Year 2000–2009”, fact sheet (Washington, DC: 28 May 2009).

10 Косвенные расходы на бензин рассчитаны на основе данных Международного центра оценки технологий (ICTA), The Real Price of Gasoline , Report No. 3 (Washington, DC: 1998), p. 34, и обновлены на основе следующей публикации: ICTA, Gasoline Cost Externalities Associated with Global Climate Change: An Update to CTA’s Real Price of Gallon Report (Washington, DC: September 2004), ITCA, Gasoline Cost Externalities: Security and Protection Services: An Update to CTA’s Real Price of Gasoline Report (Washington, DC: Janyary 2005), Terry Tamminen, Lives per Gasoline: The True Cost of Our Oil Addiction (Washington, DC: Island Press, 2006), p. 60 и из публикации Бюро экономического анализа “Table 3 – Price Indices for Gross Domestic Product and Gross Domestic Analysis”, GDP and Other Major Series, 1929–2007 (Washington, DC: August 2007); U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Information Administration (EIA), This Week in Petroleum (Washington, DC: various issues); (EIA), “US Weekly Retail”, Retail Gasoline Historical Prices (Washington, DC: 15 June 2009).

11 American Petroleum Institute, State Gasoline Tax Report (Washington DC: 1 April 2009); DOE, EIA, “Weekly (Monday) Retail Premium Gasoline Prices, Selected Countries” – см.: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu, материал обновлен 16 июня 2009 г.; данные о потреблении бензина взяты у Международного энергетического агентства (IEA) и из электронной базы данных World Resources Institute, “Energy and Resources: Energy Consumption by Source: Oil and Petroleum Products (2005), EarthTrends – см.: www. earthtrends.wri.org, материал обновлен в 2007 г.

12 U. S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, “Cigarette Price Increase Follows Tobacco Pact”, Agricultural Outlook , January– February 1999.

13 Markus Knigge and Benjamin Gorlach, Effects of Germany’s Ecological Tax Reforms on the Environment, Employment and Technological Innovation: Summary of the Final Report of the Project (Berlin: Ecologic Institute for International and European Environmental Policy, August 2005); Michael Renner, Sean Sweeney, and Jill Kubit, Green Jobs: Towards Decent Work in a Sustainable, Low Carbon World (Nairobi: UNEP, 2008), p. 97.

14 Оценка перераспределения налогового бремени в Швеции сделана на основании данных, приведенных в статье: Paul Ekins and Stefan Speck, “Environmental Tax Reform in Europe: Energy Tax Rates and Competitiveness” – в книге: Nathalie J. Chalifour et al., Critical Issues in Environmental Taxation (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 77– 105; Ministry of Finance, Sweden, “Taxation and the Environment”, press release (Stockholm: 25 May 2005); размеры семей взяты из публикаций: Target Group Index, “Household Size”, Global TGI Barometer (Miami: 2005; U. N. Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database – см.: esa.un.org/unpp, материал обновлен 11 марта 2009; Andrew Hoerner and Benoit Bosquet, Environmental Tax Reform: The European Experience (Washington, DC: Center for a Sustainable Economy, 2001); European Environment Agency, Environmental Taxes: Recent Developments in Tools for Integration , Environmental Issues Series No. 18 (Copenhagen: 2000); результаты опросов взяты из книги: David Malin Roodman, The Natural Wealth of Nations (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 1998), p. 243.

15 Redefining Progress, op. cit. note 7; N. Gregory Mankiw, “Gas Tax Now!”, Fortune , 24 May 1999, pp. 60–64.

16 Confederation of European Waste-to-Energy Plants, Landfill Taxes and Bans (Brussels: April 2007); Tom Miles, “London Drivers to Pay UK’s First Congestion Tax”, Reuters , 28 February 2002; Energy Council, Energy Efficiency Policies and Indicators (London: 2001), Annex 1;

“DONG satisfied with Electric Car Tax Relief”, Copenhagen Post , 22 May 2009; Nick Kurczewski, “Scariest Place in the World to Buy a Car”, New York Times Wheels Blog , 7 May 2008; Office of the Mayor, “Car Plate Prices Climb” (Shanghai: 21 June 2009).

17 South Australian Fisheries Management Series, Management Plan for the South Australian Southern Zone Rock Lobster Fishery (Adelaide, South Australia: 2007); South Australian Research and Development Institute, Southern Zone Rock Lobster (Jasus edwarsdsii), Fishery , assessment report to PIRSA (Adelaide, South Australia: 2008).

18 Письмо Эдвина Кларка автору, 25 июля 2001 г.

19 Andreˆ de Moor and Peter Calamai, Subsidizing Unsustainable Development (San Joseˆ, Costa Rica: Earth Council, 1997).

20 World Bank, World Development Report 2003 (New York: Oxford University Press, 2003), pp. 30, 142; IEA, World Energy Outlook 2006 (Paris: 2006), p. 279.

21 Данные по Бельгии, Франции и Японии взяты из работы: Seth Dunn, “King Coal’s Weakening Grip on Power”, World Watch , September/October 1999, pp. 10–19; данные по Германии взяты из публикации: UNEP, Reforming Energy Subsides: Opportunities to Contribute to the Climate Change Agenda см. с. 335 (одна строка) 2006 (Washington, DC: October 2008), Table 1.4; данные о сокращении субсидий в Китае, Индонезии и Нигерии взяты из публикации: GTZ Transport Policy Advisory Service, International Fuel Prices 2007 (Eschborn, Germany: April 2007), p. 3.

22 John Whitelegg and Spencer Fitz-Gibbon, Aviation’s Economic Downside , 3rd ed. (London: Green Party of England & Wales, 2003); перевод сумм в британских фунтах стерлингов в их долларовый эквивалент выполнен на основе обменного курса, установленного МВФ на август 2007 г. – cм.: “Representative Exchange Rates for Selected Currencies in August 2007”, Exchange Rate Archives by Month – на сайте: www.imf.org/external; просмотрено автором 16 августа 2007 г.; U. N. Population Division, op. cit. note 14.

23 Doug Koplow, Subsidies in the U. S. Energy Sector: Magnitude, Causes, and Options for Reform (Cambridge, MA: Earth Track, November 2006); cообщение, посланное Дугом Коплоу по электронной почте Джесси Роббинс, Earth Policy Institute, 2 июля 2009 г.

24 Стоимость субсидий рыболовству включает «невозвратные» субсидии и субсидии на горючее, оцененные в публикации: Fisheries Center, Catching More Bait: A Bottom-Up Re-Estimation of Global Fisheries Subsidies (2nd Version), (Vancouver, BC: University of British Columbia, 2006), p. 21.

25 Coal Moratorium NOW!, “Progress Towards a Coal Moratorium: 59 Coal Plants Cancelled or Shelved in 2007”, press release (San Francisco: 17 January 2008); Mark Clayton, “Rising Construction Costs and Potential Climate Legislation in Congress Halt at Least 18 Proposed Power Plants in the Past Nine Months”, Christian Science Monitor , 25 October 2007; Janet Larsen, “Coal Takes Heavy Human Toll”, Eco-Economy Update (Washington, DC: Earth Policy Institute, 24 August 2004).

26 Sierra Club, “Stopping the Coal Rush”, доступная в режиме онлайн электронная база данных, оценка выполнена 23 июля 2009 г. – см.: www.sierraclub.org/enivvironmentallaw/coal/plantlist.asp; дискуссия Кэтлин Краст, Sierra Club, с Джесси Роббинс, Earth Policy Institute, 23 июля 2009 г.

27 Opinion Research Corporation, A Post Fossil-Fuel America: Are Americans Ready to Make the Shift? (Princeton, NJ: October 2007).

28 Andrew Ross Sorkin, “A Buyout Deal That Has Many Shades of Green”, New York Times , 26 February 2007; “Texas Decision Could Double Wind Power Capacity in the U. S.”, Renewable Energy Access , 4 October 2007.

29 Timothy Gardner, “Florida Gov. Might Allow New Coal Power Plants”, Reuters , 4 October 2007; письмо Бака Паркера, Earthjustice, автору в октябре 2007 г.; Coal Moratorium NOW! op. cit. note 25.

30 Jim Jelter, “Coal Stocks Tumble on Citigroup Downgrade”, Market-Watch , 18 July 2007; Steve James, “Coal Shares Fall After Merrill Downgrade”, Reuters , 3 January 2008; Citigroup, “Leading Wall Street Banks Establish the Carbon Principles”, press release (New York: 4 February 2008); Jeffrey Ball, “Wall Street Shows Skepticism Over Coal”, Wall Street Journal , 4 February 2008; Jeffrey Ball, “Bank of America Puts a Price on Carbon”, Wall Street Journal , 13 February 2008.

31 Martin Griffith, “Reid Fights New Coal-Fired Plants” (Salt Lake City) Desert News , 26 August 2007; Nicholas D. Kristof, “The Big Melt”, New York Times , 16 August 2007; Governor Jennifer M. Granholm, “Priorities for Michigan’s Economic Future: Jobs, Education and Protecting Families”, State of the State Address, 3 February 2009; State of Washington 60th Legislature, Climate Change – Mitigating Impacts, Engrossed Substitute Senate Bill 6001, Chapter 307, Laws of 2007, 22 July 2007; Carla Vigue, “Governor Says No to Coal for State Heating Plants in Madison”, press release (Madison, WI: Office of the Governor, 1 August 2008); Audrey Chang, “California Takes on Power Plant Emissions: SB 1368 Sets Groundbreaking Greenhouse Gas Performance Standard”, fact sheet (New York: Natural Resources Defense Council, August 2007); Gardner, op. cit. note 29.

32 Granholm, op. cit. note 31.

33 Kristen Lombardi, Coal Ash: The Hidden Story: How Industry and the EPA Failed to Stop a Growing Environmental Disaster (Washington, DC: Center for Public Integrity, 19 February 2009).

34 Там же; “Enviros Demand Locations of 44 ‘High Hazard’ Coal Ash Sites”, Environmental News Service , 19 June 2009.

35 James Hansen, “Why We Can’t Wait”, The Nation , 7 May 2007; Noelle Straub and Peter Behr, “Energy Regulatory Chief Says New Coal, Nuclear Plants May Be Unnecessary”, Greenwire , 22 April 2009.

36 Supreme Court of the United States, Massachusetts et al. v. Environmental Protection Agency et al. No. 05–1120, 549 U. S. 497, решение вынесено 2 апреля 2007 г., Washington, DC: Environmental Appeals Board, U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, “In Re: Desert Power Electric Cooperative, PSD Permit No. PSD-OU-0002–04.00” (Washington, DC: 13 November 2008); David Biello, “EPA Ruling Halts All New Coal-Fired Power Plants”, Scientific American , 14 November 2008; Deborah Zabarenko, “EPA Finds Greenhouse Gases Endanger Health”, Reuters , 23 March 2009.

37 Sierra Club, “Beyond Coal” – см.: www.sierraclub.org/coal, просмотрено автором 25 июня 2009 г.

38 Письмо Матиаса Белла, Rocky Mountain Institute, Джесси Роббинсу, Earth Policy Institute, посланное по электронной почте 30 июня 2009 г.; Natalie Mims, Mathias Bell, and Stephen Doig, Assessing the Electric Productivity Gap and the U.S. Efficiency Opportunity (Snowmass, CO: Rocky Mountain Institute, January 2009).

39 Erik Shuster, Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants (Pittsburgh, PA: DOE, National Energy Technology Laboratory, January 2009); Julie Clendenin and Shawna Seldon, “Wind Energy Grows by Record 8300 MW in 2008”, press release (Washington, DC: American Wind Energy Association (AWEA), 27 January 2009); AWEA, U. S. Wind Energy Projects , электронная база данных – см.: www.awea.org/projects, обновлено 31 декабря 2008 г.

40 Henry Manczyk and Michael D. Leach, “Combined Heat and Power Generation and District Heating in Denmark: History, Goals, and Technology” – см.: www.energy.rochester.edu/dk/manczyk/denmark. pdf, просмотрено автором 13 февраля 2008 г.; “New Zealand Issues Ten–Year Ban on New Thermal Power Plants”, Power Engineering , 11 October 2007; Global Wind Energy Council, Global Wind 2008 Report (Brussels: 2009); Jad Mouawad, “Chinese Clean Coal Will be Critical, a Report Says”, Green Inc . – см.: Nytimes.com, 20 April 2009.

41 В Таблице 10–1 приведены следующие расчетные данные: о сокращении выбросов углерода при сожжении ископаемого топлива и изменений на транспорте – на основе: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2008 (Paris: 2008), p. 507; о сокращении промышленных выбросов – на основе: IEA, Tracking Industrial Energy Efficiency and CÎ2 emissions (Paris: 2007), о сокращении выбросов за счет посадок деревьев и прекращения вырубки лесов – на основе: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change, Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge, U. K.: Cambridge University Press, 2007), pp. 543, 539; и о поглощении углерода почвой, основанных на консервативных прогнозах в работе: Rattan Lal, “Soil Carbion Sequestration Impacts on Global Climate Change and Food Security”, Science, vol. 304 (11 June 2004), pp. 1623–1627.